Polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday in Illinois. [Ben Szalinski/The Daily Line]   

Illinois voters — who haven’t already cast an early or mail-in ballot — head to the polls on Tuesday with the presidential race at the top of their minds. But with Illinois expected send its electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris — as it has done for every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 — eyes will be looking further down the ballot to see how General Assembly races shake out.  

Legislative races 

This year’s election is a test of new House Republican leadership and a new strategy after the caucus lost seats in the 2022 election. Minority Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) is now leading election efforts after former Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) stepped down following multiple defeats in 2022.   

This year, McCombie is deploying a new strategy. While Durkin ran around 100 House Republican candidates in 2022, McCombie is focused on incremental progress to chip away at a record House Democrats’ supermajority of 78 members over the coming election cycles. She recently told reporters she believes House Republicans can pick up four seats and there are two “sleeper” races to watch.  

Spending by McCombie’s House Republican Organization (HRO) shows a heavy investment in five races: 45th House District between Elmhurst Republican Dennis Reboletti and Elmhurst Democratic Ald. Marti Deuter; 76th House District between La Salle Republican Liz Bishop and Ottawa Democrat Amy “Murri” Briel; 91st House District between Carlock Republican Desi Anderson and Rep. Sharon Chung (D-Bloomington); 97th House District between Plainfield Republican Gabby Shanahan and Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield); and 112th House District between Edwardsville Republican Jay Keeven and Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville).   

House Democrats are looking at their own pick-up opportunities, however, as the Democratic Party of Illinois and House Speaker Chris Welch (D-Hillside) have spent millions in races, including to protect incumbent candidates that Republicans aren’t waging much of an effort to unseat.   

Party Chair Lisa Hernandez (D-Cicero) recently said she believes Democrats can pick up four seats: 47th House District between Wheaton Democrat Jackie Williamson and Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton), 52nd House District between North Barrington Democrat Maria Peterson and Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills), 104th House District between St. Joseph Democrat Jarrett Clem and Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville); and 114th House District between former Rep. LaToya Greenwood (D-East St. Louis) and Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt). Democrats are also eying the 79th House District between Monee Democrat Billy Morgan and Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais) and the 82nd House District between Burr Ridge Democrat Suzanne Akhras and Rep. Nicole La Ha (R-Homer Glen).  

Though presidential election years are often thought to favor Democrats with a higher turnout, Republicans picked up a seat during the 2020 election and four seats during the 2016 election.   

The Senate has just one race that is considered competitive this year between Braidwood Republican Philip Nagel and Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Reddick) in the 40th Senate District. It’s the only race Republicans have spent money on, but they have recently slowed contributions to try to flip the seat. Senate Democrats currently have a 40-member supermajority that is not expected to shift this year.   

17th Congressional District  

Illinois has just one congressional district that is considered competitive in this year’s election where the balance of the U.S. House is at stake. U.S. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline), a former TV meteorologist in the Quad Cities and Rockford, is looking to win a second term in Congress by defeating former Winnebago County Judge Joe McGraw of Rockford.   

The 17th District picks up several cities in Illinois, including Rockford, the Quad Cities, Macomb, Peoria, and Bloomington-Normal, as it was designed to pack as many urban areas as possible into a district with significant rural space.   

The district has typically been won by close margins by former U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos, but Democrats have won the boundaries of the new district more decisively. Sorensen won his 2022 race by four points while Gov. JB Pritzker won that year by two points. President Joe Biden won the district’s boundaries by seven points in 2020.   

National observers aren’t expecting any changes in representation for the district, however. The Cook Political Report rates the district as “Likely Democrat” while Real Clear Politics rates the seat as “Solid Democrat.”   

Advisory questions  

Illinois voters will see three advisory referendum questions on their ballot this year that will not change any public policy but could guide state lawmakers on legislation going forward.  

The first questions votes will be asked reads “Should any candidate appearing on the Illinois ballot for federal, State, or local office be subject to civil penalties if the candidate interferes or attempts to interfere with an election worker’s official duties?”  

The question comes amid growing concerns about the safety of election workers, particularly as some politicians around the country have cast doubt on the results of their elections after suffering defeat.   

The second question on ballots reads, “Should the Illinois Constitution be amended to create a 3 [percent] tax on income greater than $1,000,000 for the purpose of dedicating funds raised to property tax relief?”    

Such a tax could be challenging to establish, however. Illinois’ constitution calls for a flat income tax rate, which is currently 4.95 percent, for all taxpayers regardless of income. A 2020 amendment to create a graduated income tax structure was defeated with 53 percent of people voting on the question opposing it. Another question would likely appear on the 2026 ballot if lawmakers decide a constitutional amendment can pass on the second try. 

The third question will ask about reproductive healthcare: “Should all medically appropriate assisted reproductive treatment, including, but not limited to, in vitro fertilization (IVF), be covered by any health insurance plan in Illinois that provides coverage for pregnancy benefits, without limitation on the number of treatments?”    

Protecting access to IVF took on new importance for lawmakers around the country and in Illinois this year after an Alabama court ruling that OK’d restrictions on the practice.    

Presidential race in Illinois  

Harris is expected to easily win Illinois’ 19 electoral votes this year. Trump’s performance will be worth watching, however. The former president lost the state by 17.5 points in 2020 and 17.1 points in 2016.   

Where Trump gains or loses ground could also spell out changing political views in areas of the state. One county to watch will be McHenry County, where Trump squeaked out a two-point win in 2020 as the suburbs shifted to the left. Sangamon County has also been shifting toward the left. Trump won the county by nine points in 2016, but five points in 2020. Pritzker lost the county by just one point in 2022. In 2020, Kendall and McLean counties were the only counties to flip against Trump after supporting him in 2016.