Rae Hodge

Bio

Writer @CNET: Techpocalyptic privacy tools, weird science, civil unrest | rae.hodge@protonmail | Priors: @AP @BBC @NPR et al | @USUKFulbright | Hon. @KYColonels
OCT 24, 2017
Follow @TheDailyLineIL for up-to-the-minute coverage of Day 1 of Veto Session in Springfield. For a full calendar of the day’s committee hearings and legislation, visit our Veto Session Bill Map

Day one of the Illinois General Assembly’s first fall Veto Session commences today in Springfield. While legislators begin shuttling bills toward the finish line, here is a look at what is happening across other government offices.

Morning Briefing: Day 1 of Veto Session

Follow @TheDailyLineIL for up-to-the-minute coverage of Day 1 of Veto Session in Springfield. For...
OCT 23, 2017
Hearings on a wide range of legislation will begin in Springfield Tuesday as lawmakers again converge on the Capitol for the first of the season’s three-day Veto Sessions. The Daily Line will be closely following a few key pieces of legislation as they wind their way through chambers.

Analysis: Veto Session Preview

Hearings on a wide range of legislation will begin in Springfield Tuesday as lawmakers again conv...
OCT 23, 2017

Morning Briefing: Rauner to Announce

The governor is expected to provide a long-awaited announcement today before setting off on a sou...
OCT 20, 2017
Job loss figures from the Illinois Department of Employment Security (DES) have punched a hole in employment data from across the state. Three state pension funds meet for the final time this year, while Automatic Voter Registration needs a cash injection to get it established across the state.  

Morning Briefing: 10,800 Jobs Lost

Job loss figures from the Illinois Department of Employment Security (DES) have punched a hole in...
OCT 19, 2017
Editor’s Note: Excluded from this map are those committees which are scheduled to meet but which currently have no legislation to consider beyond simple resolutions. The Daily Line publishes a complete schedule of weekly meetings and agendas for state legislative and executive bodies every Monday morning.  

Veto Session: A Bill Map for Day 1

Editor’s Note: Excluded from this map are those committees which are scheduled to meet but which ...
OCT 18, 2017
While some Illinois officials were releasing tax records yesterday, the tax-dodging of some Illinois companies was put under in the spotlight. Meanwhile, three gaming bills have begun a slow crawl toward a narrow passage as Veto Session approaches.

Morning Briefing: Tax Records and Gaming Bills

While some Illinois officials were releasing tax records yesterday, the tax-dodging of some Illin...
OCT 17, 2017
In a marathon hearing lasting nearly eight hours, the Senate Special Committee on State and Pension Fund Investments grilled officials and private consultants from a range of the state’s pension funds on the achievement of diversity investment goals.

While Some Funds Close the Gap, Racial Disparities Linger in Other State Pension Portfolios

In a marathon hearing lasting nearly eight hours, the Senate Special Committee on State and Pensi...
OCT 17, 2017
The week’s press conference schedule suddenly picked up steam yesterday, adding a new slate of bill showings and issue-focused talks by advocacy groups to the Springfield calendar. With only six days left before the General Assembly gavels in for its October Veto Session, more groups are expected to jockey for lawmaker attention before the week’s end.

Morning Briefing: Presser Pile-Up Ahead of Veto Session

The week’s press conference schedule suddenly picked up steam yesterday, adding a new slate of bi...
OCT 16, 2017
Monday, Oct. 16

10:00 a.m. - A meeting of the Special Committee on State and Pension Fund Investments will convene in room C600 of the Bilandic Building in Chicago for a subject hearing on women and minority pension investments. The meeting will be chaired by Sens. Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) and Dan McConchie (R-Lake Zurich).

2:00 p.m. - The Executive Committee of the Illinois Department of Aging will meet via video conference in both Springfield and Chicago, with the public invited to attend via conference call from  2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. The call by can be joined by dialing 1-888-494-4032 and entering access code 8944358662. No agenda has been posted by the committee.

Tuesday, Oct. 17

9:00 a.m. - A meeting of the Special Committee on State and Pension Fund Investments will convene for the second day in room C600 of the Bilandic Building in Chicago for a subject hearing on women and minority pension investments. The meeting will be chaired by Sens. Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) and Dan McConchie (R-Lake Zurich)


9:00 a.m. - Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority will meet at the MPEA Corporate Center at 301 East Cermak Road, Corporate Boardroom on the 5th Floor in Chicago. Several new contracts will be considered. Agenda.

11:00 a.m. - The Labor Relations Board will meet in 160 N. LaSalle Street, S-401, in Chicago. The board will consider action on two cases involving AFSCME Council 31. Agenda.

11:00 a.m. - The Joint Committee on Administrative Rules will meet in room 600C of the Bilandic Building in Chicago to consider a lengthy slate of items. Among them, several energy-sector rules affecting coal, solar, and wind energy production companies. Agenda.

The State Police Merit Board will hold its quarterly meeting. No agenda has yet been posted for the meeting online, although the board normally meets at 9:00 a.m. at the Thompson Center in Chicago.

Wednesday, Oct. 18

9:00 a.m. - The Latino Advisory Council of the Department for Children and Family Services will meet at the DCFS Office at 1026 S. Damen Ave in Chicago. Quarterly newsletter.

9:00 a.m. - The Illinois State Board of Education will follow their normal monthly board meeting with one of the final three budget hearings of the year. The meetings will be held in the ISBE Board Room, 100 N. First St., Springfield, 62777. Board meeting packet.

1:00 p.m. - The Board of Directors of the Liquor Control Commission is scheduled to meet in Chicago but has not posted an agenda, nor exact location information.

Thursday, Oct. 19

10:00 a.m. - The Educational Labor Relations Board will meet at 160 North LaSalle Street, Suite S-501, in Chicago. Among the final order cases to be considered, one involves the Chicago Teachers Union. Agenda.

11:00 a.m. – The Illinois Commerce Commission meets on the eight floor of the Bilandic Building in Chicago for a policy session on Illinois' Power Meter: Renewable Energy and Illinois' Transmission System. Agenda.

The Board of Trustees of the State University Retirement System are scheduled to meet but have not provided details yet. The group normally meets at 10:00 a.m. The full agenda is scheduled to be posted by Oct. 17 here.

Friday, Oct. 20

9:00 a.m. - The Statewide Foster Care Advisory Council will meet in Bloomington at the Eastland Suites, 1801 Eastland Drive. The council has not yet posted an agenda.  

10:00 a.m - The Board of Trustees of the Judges' Retirement System will meet in the Bilandic Building, room N-1810, in Chicago. No agenda has been posted by the group.

11:00 a.m. - The Board of Directors of the Illinois Housing Development Authority will meet in suite 1000, at 111 E. Wacker, in Chicago. No agenda has been posted by the group.

1:00 p.m. - The Board of Trustees of the General Assembly Retirement System of Illinois will meet in the Bilandic Building, suite S-721, in Chicago. No agenda has been posted by the group.

Meetings and Agendas: Week of October 16, 2017

Monday, Oct. 1610:00 a.m. - A meeting of the Special Committee on State and Pension Fund Investme...
OCT 13, 2017
Money piled up this week up as high-rolling candidates entered statewide races, pushing some newcomers to the wayside and sending some seasoned professionals into frenzied fundraising. The first outlines of possible Veto Session legislation are starting to become clear, although the House’s agenda has not taken a distinct shape. Contenders for the first 3-day window include a new abortion bill, a debt transparency measure, and a vetoed labor-protective bill. In the midst of it all, Gov. Bruce Rauner faces a new lawsuit from a familiar face.

Morning Briefing: Your Springfield Weekend Round-Up

Money piled up this week up as high-rolling candidates entered statewide races, pushing some newc...
OCT 12, 2017

Morning Briefing: Retiree Bankrollers

Senate Democrats circle the wagons for a famous face of state education funding reform, as a prim...
OCT 12, 2017
Within 34 minutes of convening the Economic Justice & Equity Committee Wednesday morning, Rep. Litesa Wallace (D-Rockford) found herself the only member of the Illinois House of Representative who could make the time to hear testimony from some of the state’s most vulnerable populations, women trapped in poverty.

The Violence of Poverty in the Absence of Lawmakers

Within 34 minutes of convening the Economic Justice & Equity Committee Wednesday morning, Rep...
OCT 11, 2017
Hard-hitting topics rule the day in state government. While the governor cedes a courtroom floor to the victims of an epidemic, a committee will gather to discuss the gendered impact of poverty. Quietly, another vulnerable group finds a voice in the legislature.

Morning Briefing: The Politics of Poverty

Hard-hitting topics rule the day in state government. While the governor cedes a courtroom floor ...
OCT 10, 2017

Morning Briefing: A Fair Shot?

Teachers’ unions and Gov. Bruce Rauner find themselves in the same rocking boat as Janus v. AFSCM...
OCT 06, 2017
Since news broke of a deal struck between the Illinois Lottery and private management firm Camelot Illinois, many in the state have become familiar with the top-line lottery numbers: it’s the 12th largest lottery in the U.S. with per capita average sales of about $223, and last year it commanded $2.85 billion in total sales.

Lottery revenues, however, are in trouble. With draw games like Powerball falling by $74 million over a single year, it should be easy to spot this kind of drop. But a $60 million increase in instant tickets makes up enough of the difference that Lottery Fund revenues only appear on the surface to have fallen by a measly 0.5%, or $14 million.

Much of the new Camelot deal is still shrouded in secrecy, buried in the page-long redactions of the company’s bid. There’s no way to know whether Camelot is promising Illinois more than it is able to give.

As reported by the Chicago Tribune, Camelot’s proposal calls for 15% of any profits beyond their “guaranteed” first tier goal, then 20% if it meets a second tier goal, and 25% for meeting a third tier goal or beyond. But Camelot asked the state not to release the dollar amounts of those levels. The Tribune report notes, “if those levels are set artificially low, it could mean more money for Camelot and less for the state.”

Lawmakers have become frustrated seeking answers about the deal. Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie) told the Tribune, “It is a significant issue that requires much analysis… This analysis cannot be properly accomplished without all of the information and data.”

The Daily Line set out to answer Lang.

Despite unpredictable performance, wagering is still a powerful force for state tax revenues. FY2017 saw a harvest of $1.31 billion in overall wagering, which the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability measured as an 8% increase from the previous year. Lottery-related revenues, at $738 million, made up over half of that. Compared to video gaming, horse racing and riverboat dollars, the Lottery Fund transfers dominated wagering.

The relative proportion of the lottery to other wagering revenues may elicit some early optimism, especially when the most recent COGFA figures indicate Lottery Fund transfers to the state’s General Revenue Fund rose 1.5% from last year, increasing by $1 million from $68 million. The growth sounds promising. But it’s not. Overall Lottery Fund numbers fell by 7.5%, dropping from $165 million last year to $153 million in the current year.

[Read the full COGFA report for September]

Lottery revenues saw disappointing declines in FY2016, but shot upward in FY2017, gaining $58 million and in the process creating the illusion of strong growth. It’s easier to see this when you hold up the $728 million in FY2017 state revenues beside the $815 million from just three years ago. The same thing is happening with horseracing and riverboat revenues, which are down by almost $700 million from a decade ago. The only yearly rise in wagering revenue has come from video gaming which has continued to climb steadily since 2013, reaching $296 million last year.

In what might be considered the best of the bad news, despite these falling state revenues, greater portions of overall lottery receipts are being transferred to state coffers. It’s hard to tell how long that will last if yearly lottery revenues take off under Camelot management, or whether video gaming taxes will create more for of a boost for the state.

What does Lang think?

“Those businesses don’t exist to make money for state government. They exist to make money for their shareholders,” Lang told The Daily Line. “There’s a benefit. The state makes money. The local government makes money. People get hired. Florist shops sell more flowers, etc. So it’s an economic driver, but they're not in business to make money for the state so they don’t feel any specific pressure to bring in more revenue to fill in the gaps.”

[Lottery Control Board investment positions for September]

The gaps are everywhere: in the contracts, in the Lottery Control Board’s notoriously sparse agendas, and in the flagging yearly lottery revenues.

A few gaps can be closed by an evaluation of monthly holdings, which can be seen in the Lottery Board’s recent revenue and investment reports. As of five days ago, lottery security holdings were roughly $280 million through PNC Bank, with an interest rate that maxes out around 7.4%. Investment income only makes up about $725,000, yielding a modest 3.3% average return.  

Month to month cash balances are a different matter, of course. September revenues brought $91 million to the Lottery Fund–not a terrible month, comparatively--which were added to the carry-over balance. After $68 million in deposits to the Common School Fund, and $285 million in prize payouts, the Lottery Fund cash balance itself is sitting at around $129 million right now.

Compared to the normal monthly figures for the Lottery Fund, September numbers look like strong growth. But the key figure in all this is the carry-over from August: $393.6 million. Those dollars--or at least, $381 million of them--aren’t some slowly-accrued rollover, but a single-shot month with skyrocketing receipts. For context, August 2016 receipts were $94.9 million. August 2015: $91.7 million. August 2014? $89.1 million.

And previous monthly receipts from the current year have also fallen far beneath the impressive August 2017 numbers. The most the fund has seen in a single month year was $139 million in March. Normally monthly receipts run between $87 to $118 million. The anomaly isn’t entirely attributable to ticket sales either. Although notably higher than average, they were only at $142 million; prize payment transfers, at $285 million, are mainly responsible for the single-shot, sky-high monthly receipts in the midst of a 3-year downslide.

Lang, who sponsored the state’s original video gaming bill, believes it’s time to start cultivating industry growth in wagering.

“We have to figure out a way to use a valid and legal industry to fill in its own gaps. We should be figuring out ways to enhance the gaming industry. I know that’s heresy to some that are opposed to gaming,” he said. “But we already have gaming. This isn’t a question of whether we should now legalize something we don’t have. It's a question of giving an industry an ability to grow so that state revenue can grow and more people can be hired and we can improve our economic opportunity.”

[Monthly revenue report from the Lottery Control Board]

With stagnant growth rates over the last three years in Lottery Fund revenues, and combined drops in horseracing and casino revenues, it’s difficult to discern whether the numbers for video gaming will continue to grow with new supportive state mechanism. Even if they do, how reliable will wagering, in general, be as a revenue driver for the state?

“The word you just used is the key word: reliable,” said Lang. “Folks that get gaming revenue in particular municipalities that have casinos or racetracks can not afford to build a steady stream of income into their base because next year it may be lower.”

[Read COGFA’s report, Wagering in Illinois 2017]

So what’s the holdup?

“I think one of the biggest challenges people in the gaming industry face is their own inability to sit down as a cohesive industry and deal with some of the issues which are joint issues that they could be moving together on,” said Lang, who recently called for a video gaming summit in the state to deal specifically with the fractious nature of the industry’s leaders.

“Those guys are busy fighting with each other and it’s better for their industry if they aren’t,” he said. “They create competition for each other. But when people within the video gaming industry can talk to each other, and people in the the casino industry can’t talk to each other, and people in the horseracing industry can’t talk to each other--and none of the separate sub-industries can talk in a group--then how do they propose to resolve their issues moving forward?”

It’s difficult to view any wagering sub-industry as an underdog worth championing when state revenues from gambling have long been considered a tax on the poor. But if the state’s lottery revenue loss can’t be staunched under Camelot management, pressure will have to be applied somewhere.

Analysis: What’s at Stake as Illinois Gambles on Camelot to Revive Lottery Revenues?

Since news broke of a deal struck between the Illinois Lottery and private management firm Camelo...
OCT 06, 2017

Morning Briefing: New Abortion Bill

`A week filled with controversy prompts legislators to send two new measures to the House Clerk, ...
OCT 05, 2017
While some lawmakers are looking for a safe escape route from the statehouse, others are handing out life-saving drugs. Policing reforms are on the docket for the ACLU, but at least one thing is set in concrete: a $1 million settlement.

Morning Briefing: Lifeboats and Lifesavers

While some lawmakers are looking for a safe escape route from the statehouse, others are handing ...
OCT 04, 2017
Setting a historical precedent for the state’s treatment of incarcerated women, HB3904 has been signed by Governor Bruce Rauner, permanently establishing the Women’s Correctional Services Division under the Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC).

New Law Opens Door to Historic Reform of Women’s Prisons

Setting a historical precedent for the state’s treatment of incarcerated women, HB3904 has been s...
OCT 04, 2017

Morning Briefing: Rauner Demurs on Run but GOP Cash Rolls In

A GOP leader copped a campaign cash coup, while the party gave its blessing to one of the new can...

Bio

Writer @CNET: Techpocalyptic privacy tools, weird science, civil unrest | rae.hodge@protonmail | Priors: @AP @BBC @NPR et al | @USUKFulbright | Hon. @KYColonels