A certain group of 2016 political junkies might have one lasting image of Election Day — the New York Times needle’s shift from blue to deep red as early results came in, with Hillary Clinton’s chances of victory moving from 85 percent to her resounding electoral college defeat to President Donald Trump.



The seemingly unexpected shift of fate prompted a rash of headlines from CNN, Forbes and the Washington Post wondering whether political polling was on life support.

It’s not.

“I definitely think 2016 was not a banner year for polling, said Melissa Bell, the director of research for Global Strategy Group. “I think that’s obvious. We got it wrong. But I think that I’m really proud of the industry — especially my firm — in that we’ve been able to take an honest, reflective look at the work that was one, where mistakes were made, and corrections have been made moving forward.”

Bell and her former Benenson Strategies Group colleague Liz Dunne, now the North American lead on Uber’s research and insights team, sat down to talk about the future of polling on The Daily Line’s podcast, The Aldercast.

The Aldercast: Pollsters Demystify the Biz, Share What Went Wrong in 2016

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Part of the problem is a public misperception about what polls are meant to do; how they are read; and how pollsters, campaigns and the media communicate uncertainty. Here are five things we learned about the art and science of polling in our latest show:

• Garbage in, garbage out — Polls are doomed to fail without a solid knowledge of what the electorate will look like. That calculus changed after 2016 and as pollsters consider a potential blue wave in midterm elections. “If you don’t have a vision or some confidence about what Election Day is going to look like, or early vote or primaries, you’re sort of starting off on the wrong foot and then everything else you put behind it doesn’t really matter,” Dunne said.


• Polls shouldn’t tell the candidate what they want to hear — Pollsters want to deliver clear numbers, for better or worse. “A good pollster tells you what people like about you, what they like about your message, what you stand for and they also let you know what your vulnerabilities are, because you need to prepare,” Bell said. “It’s just connecting candidates where the already are, positions that they already have, stuff about them that’s already true.”  


• Live telephone is still best practice, but online polling is emerging — “Things are changing, technology is changing. Right now the gold standard is still live interview telephone polling,” Bell says. “Five years from now, will the answer I give you be different to that question? Probably.” The trick with online polls is ensuring the person on the other side matches the right person in the voter file, they say.  


• Be wary of TV focus groups — Focus groups can be a critical tool for campaigns to dive deep on issues, hear candidly from voters and reframe a candidate’s goals — but take the ones you see on television with a grain of salt. When done right, qualitative focus groups can be “a really important tool to bring everybody home,” Dunne says. But Bell warns – “if they’re on TV and people know that everything that they’re saying is now being broadcast to whatever size audience, we don’t actually know if what they’re saying is really what they think or value or if they’re giving you a socially desirable response, perhaps curating the discussion.”  
  


• Look out for women —  A 2018 trend to watch is more female candidates. A record number of women, for example, are running for the U.S. House and 28 women ran for statewide executive or U.S. congressional offices in the Illinois primary. But Dunne says we shouldn’t necessarily assume female candidates will get a 1 or 2 percentage point bump by dint of being a woman. “I think about how I voted at 22, 23 – ’Who’s the most Irish name on here and where are the women?’” Dunne says, but reflecting on her work for EMILY’s List, she notes, “folks aren’t voting — we don’t, nor should we, nor do voters think they’re voting for a candidate because they are a women. This is not being women candidate for a woman’s sake… they represent change.” More women are winning, Bell says because more women are running and are “great candidates that both men and women are voting for.”  
  

Before breaking for their traditional August recess, aldermen introduced dozens of proposals on a some of the most controversial issues facing the city.

A veteran of Cook County Assessor Joe Berrios’ office — and his political organization — filed to challenge first-term Ald. Milly Santiago, who won the 31st Ward seat by defeating another Berrios ally, while the battle for the 25th Ward seat could feature a rematch from 2015. The Chicago Public Schools got good news from another ratings agency, one day after passing its budget.

Twenty-eight immigrant children separated from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border are still being held in Chicago shelters, according to the nonprofit organization housing the children.

Comm. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-7) iced his months-old proposal for a revenue forecasting commission on Wednesday in the face of opposition from his usual allies on the board — as well as typical opponents.

All but four aldermen signed on to a measure Wednesday that would restrict the Chicago Police Department’s use of a database listing tens of thousands of Chicagoans linked to gang activity.

The City Council cracked down Wednesday on the Chicago nonprofit organization holding children separated from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Inspector General Joseph Ferguson Wednesday backed Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s push to require Chicago police officers to document every time he or she points a gun at a person.

Sean Tenner, a veteran of North Side political circles, was tapped to be the 46th Ward’s Democratic Committeeman at a meeting of precinct captains Wednesday night at the Uptown Arcade.

The City Council is poised to take aim Wednesday at the Chicago nonprofit organization holding children separated from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border as part of Chicago’s continuing effort to push back against President Donald Trump.

The measure from Aldermen Ed Burke (14) and Ald. Danny Solis (25) would require Heartland Alliance’s nine Chicago-area shelters to be licensed by the city as day-care facilities. The Finance Committee will meet at 9:15 a.m. Wednesday to consider approving the proposal — which is expected to be revised — before sending it to the full City Council for a vote.

The measure is designed to give city officials greater access to the Chicago shelters, where officials have denied aldermen’s requests for visits — as well as more information about how many children are being held after being separated from their families. [Aldermen grill organization sheltering children taken from parents at U.S.-Mexico border in Chicago]

In addition, aldermen are expected rename (O2018-5017) a portion of Congress Parkway from Columbus Drive to the point where it merges with the Eisenhower Expressway as lda B. Wells Drive to honor the Civil Rights icon. The change requires state approval as well. [Plan to rename Congress Parkway for Ida B. Wells advances]

Also up for a vote are nearly $8.5 million in settlements, including $4.5 million to end three lawsuits that alleged police misconduct

Five appointments are also up for approval:

• A2018-62 — Jamiee Rhee as aviation commissioner [Aldermen lavish praise on mayor’s pick to lead Aviation Department]


• A2018-61 — Shannon Andrews as chief procurement officer [Do more to boost contracts, jobs for blacks, Latinos and women, Aldermen tell mayoral appointee]


• Joseph Lipari as deputy public safety inspector general [Chicago at ‘historic crossroads’ over issues of public safety, police trust, deputy inspector nominee tells aldermen; NYPD assistant inspector general named new watchdog overseeing police misconduct probes]


• A2018-63 — Ald. Jason Ervin (28) to the board of the Chicago Infrastructure Trust


• A2018-56 — Salvador A. Cicero as a member and chairman of the Chicago Human Resources Board.

The City Council is also set to approve two West Loop projects that will continue to reshape the area near the Kennedy Expressway.

The first proposal (O2017-8997) to build a new 12-story building at 310 N. Sangamon St. with 7,800 square feet of ground floor retail and office space on the upper floors.

The second proposal (O2017-7018) would build an Equinox hotel with 165 rooms as well as a 30,000-square-foot sports club, 370 apartments and restaurant space at 725 W. Randolph St.

Wednesday’s session is the last meeting of the City Council until after Labor Day and the council’s traditional August recess.

Other Items Slated for Approval:

• O2018-5387 — To transform historic St. Boniface Church into market-rate condominiums


• O2018-5858 — To sell three parcels at 4317 S. Calumet Ave. for $23,500; 4512 S. Indiana Ave. for $30,500 and 4412 S. Calumet Ave. for $37,500 as part of the Parade of Homes project in Ald. Pat Dowell’s ward


• O2018-5476 — To construct an outdoor recycling center in the 24th Ward


• O2018-5018 — To prohibit parking on city-owned vacant lots even if no parking signs are not posted


• O2018-5090 — To establish the Opportunity Investment Fund, which would set aside $30 million to provide low-cost financing to help people buy multi-family housing in gentrifying areas.


• O2018-5091 —  A $30 million pilot program that would provide financial assistance for the purchase or refinance of multi-family residential buildings


• O2018-4988 — To impose an additional 2 percent tax on short-term rental guests in Chicago to help fund housing for victims of domestic violence [Aldermen agree to tack on 2% surcharge to home-sharing services to fund domestic violence services]


• Or2018-304 — To close the Chicago underpass at Lake Shore Drive between midnight and 5 a.m. from July through October.


• O2018-5012 — To impose a 30-minute time limit for pickup deliveries by commercial vehicles within curb loading zones.


• R2018-677; R2018-680; R2018-682; O2018-5002; O2018-4997 —  Five property tax breaks for firms across the city


• O2018-2516 — To approve a Garfield Ridge development set to feature 62 independent senior living units.

The Zoning Committee endorsed two West Loop projects Tuesday that will continue to reshape the area near the Kennedy Expressway.

Revenue from tax increment financing in Cook County topped $1 billion for the first time in TIF history, according to Clerk David Orr’s latest report released Tuesday.

A group of commissioners and the president’s office squared off Tuesday amidst mid-year budget hearings over a new oversight body.

As the deadline approaches for city officials and Attorney General Lisa Madigan to agree on how the Chicago Police Department should be reformed in the wake of the fatal shooting of Laquan McDonald, lawyers will head back to court Wednesday morning.

The two sides are likely to update Judge Robert Dow Jr. on the only remaining area of disagreement between attorneys representing the city and the attorney general’s office, which centers on a the attorney general’s insistence that officers should be required to document every time he or she points a gun at a person.

Eileen Boyce, a spokeswoman for Madigan, confirmed Tuesday that the attorney general continues to support such a requirement in the consent decree which tops 200 pages and covers a host of topics, including when officers can use force, how they are supervised and held accountable for misconduct.

A spokesman for the city’s Law Department did not return a message from The Daily Line.

Under the department’s general orders, officers do not currently have to file a report if they point a gun at a person, officials said.

Karen Sheley, the director of the ACLU of Illinois’ Police Practice Project, said it was “shocking” that the department’s current rules do not require officers to file a report every time they point their weapon at a member of the public.

“Having a gun pointed at you by an officer is a serious thing,” Sheley said. “It should be documented. Don’t we want to know if officers are pulling guns on people?”

In addition, similar provisions are included in 10 of 12 consent decrees and are in place in New York and Los Angeles, Sheley said.

Past coverage

• Justice Delayed: On the first anniversary of the DOJ’s investigation into Chicago police, the fight for reform is mired in bureaucracy


• ACLU, Black Lives Matter Reach Agreement With City, Attorney General Over Demands For Chicago Police Department Reform


• Black Lives Matter Unveils 10-point Plan To Be Included in Chicago Police Department Reform Package

After insisting for months that there was no need for a federal judge to oversee reforms at the CPD, Emanuel reversed course 11 months ago, sparking the negotiations that are almost complete in advance of a Sept. 1 deadline.

Madigan’s insistence that a federal judge oversee efforts to reforms were prompted by a U.S  Justice Department finding that Chicago police officers routinely violated the civil rights of residents by using excessive force. It also found that officers were poorly trained and lacked supervision.

Last month, the City Council agreed to pay $2.5 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the family of a 3-year-old girl who was traumatized after officers pointed a gun at her during a raid of her family’s home.

As part of the reforms already announced by Emanuel and department brass, officers have received additional training on how to de-escalate tense situations in an effort to reduce the number of violent encounters between police and Chicagoans.

It will be impossible to assess the impact of that training unless the number of times officers use their weapons is documented, Sheley said.

ACLU officials have not yet seen the draft consent decree, and the fact that this issue remains a sticking point is concerning, Sheley said.

“I’m worried about what the rest of the consent decree looks like,” Sheley said.

Fraternal Order of Police President Kevin Graham has called the prospect of his officers working under the rules set by a federal judge "a potential catastrophe for Chicago."

A spokesman for the police union did did not return a message from The Daily Line. Dow, the judge overseeing the case, has not ruled on the police union’s request to intervene in the case.

In a statement on its blog, the union vowed to “fight the creation of this consent decree, which, we believe, will have a devastating impact on the ability of our members to protect the public.”

Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s pick to lead the city’s Procurement Department got an earful of advice from aldermen Tuesday about how to increase the number of contracts awarded to firms owned by Blacks, Latinos and women.